Indo-Pakistan Nuclear War In 2028: US National Intelligence

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By Abdus Sattar Ghazali

The US National Intelligence Council has predicted a nuclear war between India and Pakistan in 2028. The prediction came in the Council report released recently under the title: Global Trends: Paradox of Progress.

Every four years since 1997, the National Intelligence Council has published an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior US leaders think and plan for the longer term.

The report is timed to be especially relevant for the administration of a newly elected US President, but Global Trends increasingly has served to foster discussions about the future with people around the world, according to the Council.

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India-Pakistan: A Secure Nuclear Order

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We (India and Pakistan) must stop the vertical proliferation of nuclear technologies. Our younger generation needs education and better healthcare way more than second-strike nuclear capability.

India is the world’s fifth largest economy and (Pakistan) we are a country under the burden of crippling external debt. Why not compete with India in the economic realm?

By Rizwan Asghar – The News

The successful test-firing of the submarine-launched, nuclear-capable cruise missile Babur-III has made many people in our strategic community feel proud. The missile, with a range of 450 kilometres, is being considered “a major scientific milestone” because it gives Pakistan a sea-based second-strike nuclear capability.

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India Should Not Be Sucked Into An Arms Race

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By Manpreet Sethi*

India closed 2016 with the successful test of its long-range ballistic missile, the 5,000-km-range Agni V. The country heralded the New Year with the test of Agni IV, a ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kms.

Both these delivery systems are important constituents of India’s credible minimum deterrence. Since deterrence presupposes the capability to punish the adversary, it necessarily rests on the ability to threaten something that is dear enough to make its loss unacceptable. Agni IV and V bring the major cities of China within the range of India’s nuclear harm and thus are considered critical to deter China from indulging in nuclear blackmail or coercion.

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It Is Time India Signs the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

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By R. Rajaraman - The Wire

The time has come for India to unilaterally and voluntarily sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). At first glance, this suggestion might sound like diplomatic sacrilege, one being made at an inopportune time.

The government has its hands full with the demonetisation issue and the forthcoming state elections. Nothing could be further from their minds than a drastic new move in the strategic sphere. Furthermore, for a while now, our policy on CTBT has been firmly set – to support it in principle but not do anything about joining it until other major players, like the US and China, ratify it first.

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Kashmir and Rising Nuclear Dangers on the Subcontinent

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By Michael Krepon - Arms Control Wonk

(January 15, 2017) U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will inherit rising nuclear dangers in five regions of the globe. Every one of them could get worse under his watch. Even before taking office, he has challenged Russia with a nuclear arms race it cannot win, while provoking China over Taiwan. He has threatened to rip up the Obama Administration’s nuclear agreement with Iran, even though it could prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons for 15 years. North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong-un, has threatened to disregard the incoming president’s warning not to flight-test a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). If that doesn’t sound bad enough, look no further than the subcontinent, where Pakistan and India are engaged in an intense nuclear competition with little likelihood of slowing down.

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Priyanka Alone Can Not Revive Congress

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By Rahul Pandey *

Just days ahead of UP assembly elections, speculations of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s ascendance within the party is gaining momentum. So far, the Gandhi scion has delimited role to the family seats (Rae Barelli & Amethi) only. But amid growing urgency of revival, Congress high command is getting impatient with every passing hour.

The party which was once recognized as the pillar of Indian democracy lost its grip in 2014. Scam after scam in UPA-2 deluded its credibility among the masses, leading to the worst defeat it ever faced since independence.

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69% of Funds for India Political Parties from Unknown Sources: Report

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By PTI

Political parties received Rs 7,833 crore funding from unknown sources between 2004-05 and 2014-15, which is 69 per cent of their total income, with Congress and BJP witnessing maximum income from such sources, a report stated.

National and regional political parties received Rs 11,367.34 crore of total income during this period, as per a report by Delhi-based think-tank Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR).

The income of national parties from unknown sources increased by 313 per cent, from Rs 274.13 crore during 2004-05 to Rs 1,130.92 crore during 2014-15, ADR said.

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World Bank Lowers India’s Economic Growth Prospects

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By Lalit K Jha

The World Bank on Wednesday decelerated India’s growth for 2016-17 fiscal to a “still robust” 7% from its previous estimate of 7.6% due to demonetisation, but asserted that the country would regain momentum in the following years with 7.6% and 7.8% growth.

“The immediate withdrawal of a large volume of currency in circulation and subsequent replacement with new notes announced by the government in November contributed to slowing growth in 2016,” the World Bank said in its latest report.

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‘It’s a Decentralised Emergency… A Pyramidal Mafia State’

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In an explosive interview, the former BJP leader Arun Shourie hits out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Interview By Swati Chaturvedi

As part of the research for my book, I Am a Troll, I interviewed the former Bharatiya Janata Party leader Arun Shourie – a man who has also been viciously trolled on social media by ‘bhakts’ when on the Karan Thapar show he first went public with his criticism of the Narendra Modi government. The interview with Shourie, who was a minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government from 1999-2004, was conducted in the summer of 2016 and the edited transcript is being published in The Wire for the first time.

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Modi Cult Building Is Part Of Hindu Rashtra Building

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By Shamsul Islam

There has been a universal belief among the modern historians and political scientists that history does not repeat ever. But recent happenings in the ‘largest’ democracy, India and the ‘greatest’ democracy, USA seem to have presented a challenge to the above dictum. It was in the mid-20th Century that world witnessed the rise of totalitarian ideologies like Nazism and Fascism in Germany and Italy. Generally, we know how these two debased ideologies under the leadership of Hitler and Mussolini came to power leading to the World War II which caused unparalleled death, devastation and misery to the world. But another fact not much known is that both Hitler in Germany and Mussolini in Italy came to power through prevalent constitutional system in their respective countries. They were able to use weaknesses of the constitutional systems in their countries and turned the polities into unbridled dictatorships, themselves becoming cults.

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Modi’s Man-Made Calamity: How Many Will Die?

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By Walt Gelles *

At this point, every sane and responsible person in India should be asking:  How many tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, or millions of people in India are going to die from hunger, starvation, malnutrition and disease as a result of Modi’s demonetisation?

Reports from the rural and semi-rural areas of India, from towns and villages, already indicate that hunger is widespread because of the nonexistence of cash.[1][2]  This artificial crisis was created on November 8, 2016 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi arbitrarily declared 86% of the nation’s currency worthless as legal tender—a draconian diktat taken without any prior discussion with his cabinet, Parliament, or the people.

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JULY 2017

Vol. 11 - No. 12










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